Dropped Third Strike

IMHO - 9.27.08

Here we go again - the Mets' chances of making the playoffs come down to the last day of the season. I would imagine that Mets fans have a higher level of stress than most - and may even have a shorter life expectancy because of it.

Johan Santana is worth every cent spent on him. I have said this all along. He proved it again today by tossing a three-hit shutout, on three days rest, in a game where he was needed the most. 16-7, 2.53 ERA - only a few wins away from a Cy Young. The bullpen is to blame for this. For everyone that said his stuff isn't as good as it used to be - this is his lowest ERA over a full season. He also gave up 10 less home runs this year than last year.

I would like to change my pick for NL MVP. As much as it hurts, Ryan Howard is the correct choice. His level of production has been incredible, and the timing is even better (unless your a Mets fan).

Please come back Mark McGwire.

Where in the world is Barry Bonds? Is he still working out hoping some one signs him? I haven't seen anything.

The Rays did it. The are the Anti-Mets. The won the AL East when no one thought it was possible. Thank you Rays for knocking the Yanks out of the playoffs. I am glad to see them go, just like the Braves a few years ago.

Is Larry (Chipper) Jones going to name his next child Citi?

We could see a Cubs-Rays World Series... That would be different. I am not sure the Tropicana Dome is ready for the World Series. I love the stadium - parking might be a problem!

If K-Rod wins the Cy Young because he leads the league in saves, then Ichiro should win the MVP for leading the league in At-Bats.

Jason Giambi is a dork.

K-Rod breaks the record!!

Link: ESPN - Mariners vs. Angels - Recap - September 13, 2008.

K-Rod is now the all-time single-season saves record holder. Now, can me move on?

I mean, really, I am not sure how this changes anything. He has a few blown saves too, and none of his saves required any more than three outs. The vast majority of his save opportunities started with no runners on base.

Congratulations, Angels, for winning so many games that K-Rod had a ton of opportunities. Your reward: K-Rod leaving via free agency to go rip some one off. Please don't sign him, I am sure you could find some else to give 60+ save opportunities to, and maybe you will have another record-breaker.

He did it in dramatic fashion too - the Angels needed to bring in their closer for a nail-biter - up by three, and no one on base, against the beyond-disappointing Seattle Mariners.

Maybe now everyone will stop talking about this...

A.L. Cy Young: Why not Mariano??

So, I am sure everyone, unless you are an Angels fan, is absolutely sick of hearing about K-Rod. "K-Rod should get the Cy Young," or "K-Rod for MVP," and so on... Give me a break - I can't see anyway to justify giving this guy even one vote for Cy Young, and especially MVP.

Let's just kill the MVP argument before we go any further. His job is to come in and maintain the lead that his team gave him. He did not create the lead, just maintained it. Because of his status as closer, he is not used when they are losing, so he has no part in any walk-off victories. I mean, he has only pitched 59.1 innings in 65 games; that's less than one inning per game!!!!! How can he be the most valuable guy on the Angels, let alone the entire American League?

Now, I can see him being included in Cy Young discussions - but it stops there. On the surface, his 54 saves is quite impressive, but dig a little deeper, and he is not even the best closer in the league. The reason he has 54 saves is because he has been given 59 chances!! The rest of his numbers are as impressive - except for the saves, his numbers are not nearly as impressive as those of Mariano Rivera. So why not Mariano?

First of all, the Cy Young award is for the league's best pitcher. Often times the MVP depends on the success of your team, the Cy Young should not. Mariano would have more save opportunities if the Yankees were having a better year. Now, onto the numbers:

Rivera has 32 saves, and one blown save - percentage of 97% - K-Rod's is 92% (5 blown saves)

WHIP: K-Rod - 1.23, Rivera 0.70!!

ERA: K-Rod - 2.43 (not bad), Rivera - 1.46 (much better)

K-Rod has walked 30 batters, Rivera has only walked 6 all year... That is impressive.

Mariano's strikeout to walk ratio is a dominant 11.67.

Ready for this - K-Rod's is 2.27.

Can someone please tell me how K-Rod is a valid candidate for the Cy Young? Please leave some comments if you can find any way other than the number of saves, the K-Rod is having a better season than Mariano Rivera. Until, I will just laugh every time it is mentioned.

IMHO - 8.30.08

We're down to the final month - and some interesting story lines are developing...

K-Rod is going to destroy the record for saves in a season, probably earning over sixty by the end of the season. He has been getting some talk in Cy Young discussions, but does he deserve it? I don't think so - the save is a highly-overrated statistic. It means very little. For example, tonight for the Mets, Ayala gave up two runs in the ninth, but because he came in with a three-run lead, he gets a save. Awful performance, but gets a save... Here some reasons he shouldn't even get one vote:

- Of the 19 closers with at least 25 saves this year, 8 have a better ERA than K-Rod. His ERA is good, but not incredible for a closer.

- He has pitched in 62 games, but has only pitched about 56 innings.

- Yes, he has 51 saves, but has had 56 opportunities. This has nothing to do with his skills.

- There are other closers with a better percentage of saves per opportunities - he just plays for a team that wins more.

Jack feels strongly about this, I think he is going to go into more detail this weekend...

Staying on the "saves" topic - The Mets/Phillies game on Wednesday was the perfect example of how overrated the closer role has become. Carlos Delgado came up to bat with two outs in the eighth, he was having a good night, and was facing a pitcher who (in a small sample of at-bats) he has had some good success against. Brad Lidge was available, but it wasn't the ninth. Charlie Manuel decided to save Lidge for the ninth. The result - a very predictable hit from Delgado, specifically a game-tying home run. He then brings Lidge in for the ninth in a tie game, and Lidge gets lit up. At what point do managers stop managing for stats, and start managing for wins. That decision probably caused that loss, and is the reason the Phillies are in second place.

Another example, the Mets are 16-7 (I think) since Billy Wagner went on the DL. Not bad...

The Yankees are out. Will everyone please stop talking about the Yankees. They irrelevant.

How cool would a Twins/Rays world series be?

The Mets need to pick up Carlos Delgado's option.

The Rays continue to roll, even with poor attendance. It's about a two-hour drive to the stadium for me, but I go when I can. It is exciting, how are they not selling out every game. The stadium is very comfortable, and is air-conditioned!!

Marlins tickets should be free. They will again trade or not sign some of their best players, so they don't need the money for payroll.

I used to love Baseball Tonight, and I still like it, except when Eric Young and Eduardo Perez are on it. I'd rather mute my TV and just watch the highlights. Seriously, please let me know if there is anyone anywhere that likes it when they are on. The whole "Souvenir City" thing is old, very very old.

I do, however, enjoy watching Mets games with Gary, Keith, and Ron. They provide so much insight, and I feel like I understand what is going on much better when I watch them. Just one request for Keith Hernandez, in case he ever reads this (which I doubt he will): Please never talk about Men's underwear on TV again. I am not going to say much more, but you spent to much time talking about Jason Giambi's undergarments a few weeks ago. I couldn't stomach it, and I am still disturbed by it. I have forgiven you for this though.

That's all.

IMHO - 8.19.08

We are half way through August, and things are getting interesting in some divisions, and pretty boring in others.

- The Angels, Rays, and Cubs should be a lock for the post-season. The Rays and Cubs don't have huge leads, but I don't see anyone catching them. All of the other races should make for some exciting September baseball!

- The A.L. Wild Card winner looks like it could be the Sox, I don't mean the Red ones. A Boston and Yankee-free post season will be nice. With the Yankees' season ending at the end of September, Sidney Ponson will have a full winter to hibernate!

- If the Mets can figure out their bullpen mess, the will easily win the East. The only reason it is close is because of all the blown saves. The Mets having good starting pitching. Johan has been excellent (more on him in a second), Ollie has been much more consistent, and Mike Pelfrey has continued to improve throughout the season. John Maine is back, and Pedro has been effective. The bullpen, however, is still a mess.

- I still think the Dodgers will win the West - I have said that all year.

- Johan Santana has been excellent - and has been clutch. Like I said last week, the Mets' bullpen has blown six of his wins - with those he would 17-7 (pretty good for August). His ERA is 2.75, only 0.15 higher than the league leader. The bullpen has cost him a shot at the Cy Young.

- I enjoyed Lee's article about the Twins - maybe someone should forward it to Hank and George Steinbrenner, and teach them to win and save a few bucks. Maybe they need a good mascot. How about someone like Mr. Moneybags - he looks like Mr. Met, but he carries around bags of money and throws excess cash at over-aged, over-rated baseball players.

- Riveraveblues.com speculates about the future of Derek Jeter. I couldn't imagine him somewhere else, I am sure the the Yanks will throw huge amounts of money at him, too. I mean, he is worth more than Jorge Posada, who they over-paid for. Maybe Ford will kick in some, I heard he drives a Ford Edge... Yeah, he's got an edge. (I am so sick of those commercials).

DTS Top 5/Bottom 5 - 8.4.08

Each week here at DTS we will be picking the Top 5 and Bottom 5 teams in baseball. The writers here vote, and we will post our results here each Monday. First place (or last place for Bottom 5) are in parentheses.

Top 5
1. Angels (2) - What a great week it was for the Halos, going a combined 5-2 on the road in Boston and New York, and perhaps more importantly, picking up a much-needed power bat in Mark Teixiera. The Rally Monkey lives on!
2. Rays (1) - The Rays are ahead in the toughest division in the majors and nothing seems to be able to stop them.
3. Cubs - To go along with their impressive sweep of the Brew Crew this week, they also improved their already MLB-best run differential to +131. FYI - the second best in baseball belongs to Boston with +91.
4. Red Sox - Maybe trading Manny was a good thing - they haven't lost without him, and Jason Bay (I know he's not technically his replacement, but come on, you know that's how he's going to be looked at all year) is hitting .363 in those three games, and has even gone yard once.
5. Minnesota - He's baaack... Liriano looked good on Sunday.

Other teams getting votes: White Sox

Bottom 5
26. Braves - I pity the fools...
27. Giants - Put Tim Lincecum on a team that hits, at all, and he's a Cy Young candidate.
28. Padres - Which comes first - Hoffman retires, or they bring in the fences at PETCO? The are in last place in the weakest division in the majors.
29. Mariners - They gave up George Sherrill and "The Other" Adam Jones, among others, for Erik Bedard, who has made only 15 innocuous starts this year. It doesn't look like too many more are ahead for him in a Seattle uniform, either. Oops.
30. Nationals (3) - Does their broadcasting crew return from breaks with a hearty, "Welcome back to Major League Baseball...sort of" call, a la Harry Doyle in Major League 2? Is there anybody out there in the Beltway area who can confim this suspicion for me?

Other teams getting votes: Indians, Pirates

Email Q&A - 8.3.08

It's been a great first week here at Dropped Third Strike - We've had almost 2000 page views, from all over the U.S., and a few other countries. Here are the top 5 cities with the most readers this week:
1. New York
2. Los Angeles
3. Cincinnati
4. Chicago
5. Tallahassee (Go Noles!)

Each week, we'll be answering your questions. The person who sends the "question of the week" will win an awesome "Dropped Third Strike" fan pack. Here we go -

Steve in Atlanta writes:
Mike, why are you so hard on the Braves? The only reason they are sitting in fourth place is because of hard luck, we have had a ton of injuries. The Mets woke up today in third place anyway, that isn't much better.

Mike Says:
Steve, I am hard on the Braves because I hate them, you can thank John Rocker for that one, and by the way, I find it hard to believe that they have 2000 pounds of injuries this year... A ton is a weight measurement, not a number. Next time try saying a bunch of injuries.

First of all there is a huge difference between 3rd and 4th place in the NL East. The Mets are two out, and the braves are something like ten. Besides, I think the Mets have been hit pretty hard by the injury bug this year - Moises Alou, Ramon Castro, Brian Schneider, Luis Castillo, Moises Alou Again, Ryan Church, Pedro Martinez, Pedro again, John Maine, Billy Wagner, and Ramon Castro again. Don't tell me about hard luck...

Now, a couple of Manny questios (shocker):
Ed in Los Angeles writes:
Do you think Manny will re-sign with LA next year?
Kenny in Colorado (do you live in South Park?) write:
Hey Lee - looks like you got it wrong, Manny didn't stay in Boston. (Hey, Kennie, that's not actually a question.)

Lee Says:

Let’s Play “Who Wants to Sign a 36 Year-Old, $20M + Malcontent?”

So Manny Ramirez was dealt to the west coast on Thursday, essentially nullifying any fragment of credibility I had after my very first post on this site, proclaiming that Manny would in fact, remain in Boston, and reemerge as a productive member of the American League’s most frightening everyday lineup. What’s that, you say you’re still reading what I have to say? Fine then. As long as you’re still here, let’s try to figure out where America’s favorite showboating, lollygagging, and absent-minded outfielder will wind up playing in 2009. The way I see it, there are two very logical choices for Man-Ram…

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in California near the Pacific Ocean

I think Manny in SoCal is a great fit. Manny in the National League, turning 37 next May, however? Not so much. Clearly, Ramirez and his agent Scott Boras will be using the remainder of the 2008 season with the Dodgers as a glorified audition tape to send to potential suitors this off-season, and so far, so good. In his first three games with L.A. (8/1-8/3 vs. Ari), he’s hitting at a .615 (8-13) clip, with 2 HRs, 5 RBI, 2 runs scored, and one awesome jersey number (moving to L.A. and emulating Gretzky’s # 99? Classic.). And if the Dodgers somehow pull past Arizona and win the putrid N.L. West, this will only make him that much more attractive to their neighbor in the O.C., the Angels. They have three sluggers in their lineup whose contracts expire at the end of the 2008 season: Vlad Guerrero (although I would expect the Angels to pick up his option for 2009), Garret Anderson (who, like Manny, is a LF/DH type), and their own trade deadline acquisition, Mark Teixiera. Look for the Angels to be big players in the Man-Ram sweepstakes this winter, and if they’re lucky enough to come out the winner, to subsequently cut bait with Anderson, who’s the same age as Manny, but without the gaudy career stats.

New York Yankees

I know that the Yankees’ days of chasing big name free agents are supposedly over, in lieu of building from within, but really, how could Cashman and his brain trust ignore the old adage, “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em”? This guy has absolutely crushed New York during his time in Beantown, and “George, Jr.” just might be crazy enough to persuade the organization to make a run at Manny, if for no other reason than to spite the Red Sox. We know the Bombers have the resources to sign him and who knows, the money that they could offer, in addition to the chance to play in his hometown and go after the franchise that, at least in his mind, did him wrong, just might add up to Manny in the Bronx in 2009.

and now for the question of the week,
Bob B. in Shirley, New York writes:
Do you think Billy Wagner is overrated?

Mike: sometimes
Jack: yes
Lee: absolutely...

Hey Bob - that was actually a terrible question - but I picked it because I once lived in Shirley (proud Charles E. Walters Elementary Alum). So you get a DTS fan pack! Send us your address to dtsblog@gmail.com.

Send us your questions, next Q&A is next weekend! dtsblog@gmail.com

Trade Deadline Winners and Losers

With the trade deadline behind us, it is time to take a look at our not-so-expert opinions of the days winners and losers.

Winners
Mike - Dodgers - This doesn't make the Dodgers the best team in baseball by any means, it doesn't even put them in the top five in the National League. What it does is put the Dodgers in position to take the West. That kind of move in such a weak division is huge. They are 13th in the NL in runs scored, and 15th in home runs. They are, however, first in ERA... They are only one game out... Watch out Arizona. Besides, what better place to send an over-paid, self-centered crybaby who can hit then to Joe Torre, who dealt with those kinds of players for years.

Lee - Angels - After a subpar showing in last year's ALDS, they finally got the power bat that they've been searching for to bolster their chances of defeating the Beasts of the East come October in Mark Teixeira. Although Teixeira and the man he's replacing, Casey Kotchman, have the same number of World Series rings (for those of you keeping score at home, that would be zero), you have to think that getting a guy with a higher slugging pct., as well as HR and RBI totals and runs scored, and for a worse team, mind you, is a significant upgrade. Angels management seems to be all in for 2008, and the folks in SoCal should applaud them for it.

Jack - Yankees - The Yankees are the clear winner at this year's trade deadline. Coming down the stretch, they had obvious needs at Catcher, Left Field, and in the bullpen. They turned out one of the best deals when they took a solid left fielder in Xavier Nady and a proven late innings pitcher in Damaso Marte from the Pirates for nearly nothing with 4 minor league prospects. They then picked up a solid veteran catcher with Pudge Rodriguez from Detriot for the useless, inconsistent pile of nothing named Kyle Farnsworth. They come into August looking much more solid and ready to take that second AL East playoff spot from the BoSox.

Losers

Mike - Mariners - Has anyone told them they are awful?? They asked too much for players that are either too old or just don't pitch that well. They could have come away with some pretty good young talent. It is time to take this team in a different direction. It's too bad the Mariners are so bad, I've seen Frasier, and the people of Seattle seem too nice to deserve this. In a very close second is the always pathetic Atlanta Braves. I am glad Mark Teixeira is worth all the talent they sent to Texas last year, he sure did help them. They re-gifted him to the Angels.

Lee - Red Sox - Me calling the Red Sox a bunch of losers? Sounds like any other Thursday, I'll admit, but today I actually have a reason. But to trade a future Hall of Famer because of what seems to be little more than a personal beef seems like a rather short-sighted and immature decision by Theo Epstein and Co., who are normally amongst the brightest at their jobs in the league. Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I really think that if Boston management would have just held out past the deadline today, Manny would have flown straight for the remainder of the season, realizing that he was playing for his job in 2009. Instead, a career .312 hitter with 512 HRs and over 1,600 RBI, a man who is notorious for destroying the hated Yankees, both in the box score and in their melons, a man who is widely considered the greatest right-handed hitter since DiMaggio, has just been shipped 3,000 miles away for Jason Bay. The same Jason Bay who, when placed in the only remotely meaningful and pressure-packed situation of his major league career, the 2005 Home Run Derby, metaphorically crapped his pants on national television (probably the only time he's played on national television, of course). Perhaps I'm exaggerating a bit with my last point, but really, in my opinion the Red Sox are taking a huge risk by trading away one of most clutch right-handed RBI producers in recent memory for a guy who has proved absolutely nothing in a town where even the people who live there don't watch the team. And why? Because Manny hurt your feelings by saying some mean things to ESPNDeportes? Grow up. You may have set yourselves up nicely for the future, but rebuilding sounds like something more suited for a team in Pittsburgh than Boston, and that's not something I think the Chowda' Heads in New England will take lightly.

Jack - Pirates - It was a tough decision between the Bucs and the Rays, but how can I fault a first place team for sticking with what has been working? The Pirates sold off 3 of their biggest pieces and didn't get much in return. Xavier Nady is gone to the Yankees along with teammate Damaso Marte. In return for losing a solid outfielder and a proven set-up man, they received four minor leaguers; it seems everyone around agrees that this was a steal for the Yankees. Jason Bay is off to fill the whole left by the most self-centered man in baseball, Manny Ramirez. They do pick up Andy LaRoache to keep third base warm until Pedro Alvarez is ready to take over, but Brandon Moss taking over in left field is no replacement for Jason Bay.

American League Predictions by Jack

Since we've already got the NL picks up, I figured I'd toss in my picks for the AL.....here we go:

AL East - Tampa Bay Rays

As a Yankees fan, it more than a little bit kills me to say anyone but them will win the division, but it's time for me to accept the reality and hope for the wild card. With the great, young pitching rotation the Rays have put together combined with their great defense (seriously, does Aki ever not turn a double play), I think it will be hard for anyone to knock the rays out of first place. The only fall back will be that they seem to have trouble winning away from the Trop. Even if they don't take the division, at least they're a lock to set their franchise record for wins in a season. Their biggest problem along the way will be the Red Sox. With their run differential being more than double that of the Rays (+89 to +40) they could pose a pretty big problem. Either way, it's great to finally have more people cheering for the Rays at the Trop when the Sox come to town.

AL Central - Detroit Tigers

I'm going with a pretty big long shot here, but I think the Tigers will start producing like they should have been all season. Besides, I just picked up Pudge Rodriguez on my fantasy team, so I'm expecting him to hit another 50 or 60 home runs this year.

AL West - Los Angeles Angels

Really, no surprise here. Despite having who I consider to be the most overrated closer in the game (I'll be posting about that later), the Angels have the best record in the majors and are a virtual lock to make the playoffs (barring a downfall like the 2007 Mets.) With the addition of Mark Teixeira to their already solid lineup, they should do fairly well in October.

Wild Card - New York Yankees

While we can almost all agree that the wild card will come from the AL East, it's pretty tough to pick which teams will be around after September. Realistically, the Sox will be taking either the division or the wild card with the Rays picking up the other spot, but I can't bring myself to say this will be the first season since the Pre-Torre era that the playoffs will start without the Yankee pinstripes. With the impending returns of Phil Hughes and, dare I say it, perhaps Carl Pavano, the Yankees should have some late season pitching help right when they need it - for crying out loud, how long can we put up with Sidney Ponson? Also, the addition of Xavier Nady to help take the place Matsui and Posada should give them a pretty solid nudge in the right direction.

AL Champs - Los Angeles Angels
we can all still hope for the Rays or Yankees though

Also, just a quick word on the NL Central. Is there any way the Cubbies won't win it? I'm going to lean on the acquisition of Rich Harden and their major league best run differential of +118 (compared to Milwaukee's +22) to say that they not only take the division but also fair very well in the playoffs.

Just my thoughts - send me yours in the comments.....