When I
said that there would be a Dodgers/Red Sox World Series a couple of weeks ago,
I really meant Phillies/Rays! Ok, not really, but everyone deserves a second
chance, right? On to the pick!
World
Series – Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Hitting:
Both teams possess
potent everyday lineups, but seem to excel at different facets of the art of
hitting. Tampa Bay, despite B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria seemingly activating
“Beast Mode” this postseason, makes its hay with Angels-style small ball, while
the Phillies are known more for mashing the Rawlings out of the Bank every
chance they get, with power bats like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell,
and Matt Stairs. Ok, kidding about the last one, but when you combine their
power (Howard was the M.L. leader in home runs this year, by the way) with
their speed and ability to manufacture runs with guys like Rollins and
Victorino (they do play in the National League, by the way) at a rate at least
on par with the Rays, you have to think that the Rays’ arms are in trouble, especially
those of their bullpen, which have appeared a bit shaky lately.
Advantage:
Phillies
Starting
Pitching: The
Phillies have two starters with a better ERA this postseason than anyone in the
Rays’ rotation. That’s a good start. I love the chances for a well-rested Cole
Hamels to steal game one at the Trop, while the Rays starting rotation will try
to counter with the physically tired (Kazmir), the mentally tired (Shields),
and the overrated (Sonnanstine). Garza looked great in the ALCS (obviously,
which is why he was the MVP), but he can’t do it all, and who knows how much
gas he’ll have left in the tank physically, or if he’ll have another costly
emotional outburst on the mound. Look for the more veteran staff to control
this series especially if the real Brett Myers (that’s the good one, for the
record) shows up. He is absolutely the X-Factor once again for Philadelphia.
Advantage:
Phillies
Bullpen:
This one’s not
even close. It was logical to assume that when Tom Gordon went down, the
Phillies’ bullpen would implode, but for the second year in a row, it’s been
very, very solid. J.P. Howell looked very hittable, while Dan Wheeler and Grant
Balfour looked like human piñatas, against clutch Boston hitting in the ALCS. On the flip-side, Phillies’ relievers
Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey and Ryan Madson combined for
a whopping 0.00 ERA in the NLCS. I know that the Rays are a better team than
the Dodgers, but that’s still pretty damn impressive in a pennant-clinching series.
The Rays bullpen has been shaken mentally, and will be, at least by comparison,
fatigued physically. I’m just much more confident with Philly’s ‘pen in a tough
situation, and you should be too! Trust them!
Advantage:
Phillies
Managing:
In spite of his
blunders in game five of the ALCS (taking Kazmir out too soon, and not having
Fernando Perez in Right), nobody in Major League Baseball has done a better job
of managing in 2008 than Joe Maddon, period. He was just in a battle of wits
with Terry Francona for seven grueling games, and let me tell you, Charlie
Manual is no Terry Francona. Maddon has done far more with far less all year,
so I’ll give the Rays skipper the nod here.
Advantage:
Rays
Intangibles:
The Rays have home
field advantage, no Florida team has ever lost a playoff series (it’s true,
look it up), Dick Vitale is a season ticket holder – all irrelevant. The
Rays really have the advantage in this category because they’ve just come off
of an intensely emotional seven game series where they were put in a position
where they could have easily submitted to the lore of a much more battle tested
opponent, but they did not, so kudos to the St. Pete Nine on a great run to
this point (that
might be a hint as to what’s coming next).
Advantage:
Rays
The
Pick: To recap,
the Phillies have the more talented and well rested pitching staff, and a more
explosive everyday lineup. I gave the Rays the advantage in the last two
categories, but Joe Maddon will not be registering a single at bat in this
series, nor will Dick Vitale or any of his cowbell-toting comrades be throwing
a single pitch out of the bullpen. You can’t overstate what Tampa Bay has done
all season, and who’s to say their run stops now? Well, since I’m picking with
my head, and not my gut, me. Let the parade commence on Broad Street; the
Phillies will be your 2008 World Series Champions. After all, that’s what I
said in my last post, right?
Prediction: Phillies in Phive Five
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