Dropped Third Strike

Lee's Playoff Preview Extravaganza - NL/ALDS Edition

Ah, October, where with the changing of the leaves also comes a changing of the guard in Major League Baseball (at least there will be in the National League, and hopefully in the form of a new World Series champ as well). Oh yeah, October is also a great time for an amateur’s division series preview (you’re welcome). I’ll start with the Senior Circuit before moving on to the American League.

New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

First things first; big ups to the entire Milwaukee Brewers organization for fighting back through some late-season adversity, albeit with a huge assist from yet another enormous choke job from the Mets, to win the wild card on the last day of the regular season. Yankees fans everywhere have surely been averting their eyes as their future ace, CC Sabathia, continues push or pass triple digits seemingly every time he takes the bump, but you have to admire the effort that he’s been giving – possibly jeopardizing tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars this offseason by pitching on short rest for a team that he’ll most likely never suit up again for in just a few short weeks just to earn them their first playoff berth since before I was born. But before you go overboard with the, “Milwaukee has the Colorado/Florida type momentum on their side and will roll over an overconfident opponent” angle, consider the following:

-          After CC, who in Milwaukee’s rotation OR bullpen do you have any confidence in whatsoever going into the playoffs? Yovani *freaking* Gallardo is starting for them in the opening game of this series tomorrow – a guy who’s thrown exactly four more M.L. innings than I have since May 1^st. You can’t count on much of anything from Ben Sheets these days (questionable for the NLDS, at best), not to mention Gagne and Torres, always the other team’s MVPs. Unless he’s facing Pujols, I’ll take Brad Lidge in a pressure situation over that mess any day.

-          After Ryan Braun, who can you consistently count on to come up with a big hit in the clutch for the Brew Crew? Today’s news that Pat Burrell hurt his back in B.P. is a bit concerning, but even if he is hindered in this series, make mine Howard/Utley/Rollins, not Braun/Prince/Hart, thank you very much.

-          The Brewers were 1-5 against Philly in the regular season, including a four game sweep in The City of Brotherly Love a couple of weeks ago. Good luck playing that one down in the media (and the clubhouse for that matter), Dale Sveum.

So once again let me congratulate the Brewers on a tremendous effort down the stretch, they earned this playoff spot – just don’t expect it to be a long stay. The Phillies had better finish this off quickly too, lest they see Sabathia twice in the same series. Luckily for them, I’m confident that they will.

Prediction: Phillies in Phour Four

Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

“It’s gonna happen!” “This is the Cubs’ year!” “1908 to 2008, it’s perfect symmetry!”

To borrow a phrase from another great Lee, “not so fast, my friend”. You want to talk about a National League team who has gained momentum seemingly on a daily basis since making a blockbuster July trade? How about the Dodgers, who have simply taken off (by N.L. West standards, anyway) since bringing in Manny Ramirez into the fold. The difference between those two deals? CC doesn’t play every day (although sometimes it seems like he does, doesn’t it?), while Manny does. Manny has changed the culture of an entire clubhouse, and has had an enormous positive influence on young sluggers like Matt Kemp and Andre Either both directly as a de facto hitting instructor, and indirectly by simply inserting himself into the heart of that batting order.

As far as starting pitching goes, I like their mix of playoff veterans (see: Lowe, Derek) and young power arms (see: Billingsley, Chad) to go along with a solid bullpen. Furthermore, I agree with a point that Colin Cowherd made on his ESPN Radio show this morning: the Cubs have too much working against them to make this happen. Too many hexes, too many combustible personalities (Piniella and Zambrano, to name two), and I might add, this team is not nearly as talented from top to bottom as the ’03 squad was before they were blitzed by Bartman. Oh, and Joe Torre knows a thing or two about managing in the playoffs, don’t you think? They probably won’t win the whole thing, but watch out for the boys in blue to pull an upset in the first round over what is, on paper at least, a superior Cubs team.

Prediction: Dodgers in Five

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim along the Pacific Coast

These teams played each other nine times (insert “Ferris Bueller” quote here) this season, with the Halos winning eight of those contests, including five of six at Fenway “Pahk”. I realize that Boston swept Los Angeles in last year’s ALDS, but the Angels were beat up physically, and didn’t have a whole lot of offensive firepower to make up for it. This year the tables have turned, with Boston being the team spending more time in the trainer’s room than the batting cage. Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew are both huge question marks in the field and at the plate for this series, and their best playoff pitcher by far, Josh Beckett, has been pushed back until Game Three, and who knows how he’ll be holding up even with the extra rest against an Angels team with a lot of added offensive weaponry since their last postseason meeting, with Teixiera and Torii Hunter now in the middle of the everyday lineup. Add all that to a formidable starting staff and a nearly unparalleled bullpen, and you’ve got the makings of a series World Series contender.

Winner: Angels in Three

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox

How ‘bout them Rays?

So much has been said about the St. Pete Nine over the past few months, but in my opinion, it hasn’t been enough. If Andrew Friedman, Joe Maddon and Evan Longoria don’t win the Executive of the Year, A.L. Manager of the Year and A.L. Rookie of the Year awards respectively, there really ought to be some sort of an investigation (especially so for Maddon). Sure there were whispers of respectability surrounding this team in the spring – 70 wins? Actually not finishing in dead last for once? – but no one saw this coming, and most Rays players, coaches and management types have admitted as much. To go from worst (for about nine whole seasons) to first, seemingly overnight, is not an accomplishment to take lightly. If this team played in something even close to a major market, you can bet they’d be getting even more recognition than they already have. Veterans like Eric Hinske, Cliff Floyd, and Troy Percival have worked tremendously alongside a solid core of young talent since day one, and it’s resulted in a stunning, yet well deserved, division title.

Now, Chicago has come much too far to simply roll over and play dead, even if the schedule has less than favorable to them lately. As I’ve said in this space before, I love what the White Sox bring to the table. Managing, hitting, pitching, intangibles – you name it, and Chicago does it very well, so well in fact that they’re once again division champs.

I really think that the Rays were watching tonight’s game and pulling for the White Sox to beat the Twins, and if so, they got their wish. I literally give the Rays the nod in all four of those categories that I listed above, as well as a huge nod in the previously unmentioned defense category. The Rays are not going to beat themselves in this series, whereas the Palehosers seem much more susceptible to the huge mental errors and power failures that can doom a team in October. It sure seems like this is a team of destiny…until they run into the Angels freight train in the ALCS. Until then, let the good times roll for the roughly 9,000 fans who will attend each game of this series at the Trop!

Prediction: Rays in Four

Yankees and Free Agent Pitchers

Now that the season has officially ended for the Yankees (and all other baseball players in New York) and I figure it's about time to look at the Free Agent pitchers that will be impacting the roller coaster ride Yankee fans will be on this Winter. First let's take a look at the current Yankee starters that will be free agents:

Andy Pettitte - He's been a solid start for the Yankees in the past, but during the tail end of the season he's begin to drop off a bit. He's again stated that he will either pitch for the Bombers or retire, and if you ask me - every pitcher should have that attitude. With his stuff declining (perhaps as the HGH has worn off) I think they should try to bring him back at a reduced rate. Maybe aroudn $8 million a year with incentives for innings pitcher, wins, or k's?

Mike Mussina - Mikey Moose really brought it back this year after what was just an awful 2007 season. On top of that, he just got his 20th win tonight which gives him (at least in my opinion) a ride to the hall of fame. With the Yankees locking up ARod until he will likely break the HR record, it would be nice if Moose was around to hit 300 winds. It would take him two pretty good seaons or 3 average seasons to rack up the 31 wins he needs. I'd say give him a 2 year deal for about $20 million with a mutual option on the 3rd for a few extra bucks.

Carl "I'm a Loser" Pavano - It's no secret, if this guy can stay healthy, he can probably pitch above average. As long as he's going to pitch somewhere, let's give him an opportunity to save his reputation and make things right with the Yankees. I'd say offer him a $1.5 million dollar deal with $100,000 for every start he makes during the season. This way if he makes only 3 starts because of a bruised butt, no big loss.

Sidney Ponson - Please clean out your locker and go back to being a sandwich artist.

Now let's take a look at some of the pitchers the Yankees will probably throw way too much money at this Winter.

Ben Sheets - I'm really scared that they Yankees will actually end up signing this guy. Yeah, he's got good stuff and would be a nice addition to any rotation if he can stay healthy, but that's a big if. If he gets signed and turns out like Pavano, fans would be calling for heads to roll.

AJ Burnett - Also, a great addition when he's healthy. The Jays have offered him a couple of more years onto his current contract at $15 million per which brings his total to 4 years and $54 million. The Yankees would have to throw a whole lot of money at him to get him to leave Toronto and frankly, I think that would be a mistake. Let him stay in Toronto or go somewhere else, but let's keep him out of New York.

CC Sabathia - No matter who gets him, he's going to be paid extremely well. The only thing of concern here is his work load the past few months. He's tossed up a couple of good #'s this year including a career low ERA and a career high in K's but since they got him, the Brew Crew have treated him like the rental they know he is - he's tossed a career high in innings pitched and complete games. He's also racked up some extremely high pitch counts - yeah, not good. The info I'm finding says all but 2 of his Brewers games have been over 100 pitches with a few being well over 120. The Yankees need him and need to pay any price needed - and they will pay it.

I think a Yankees rotation shaking down like I've listed below would be pretty solid:

1. Wang
2. Pettitte
3. Moose
4. Sabathia
5. Hughes

Now if Pavano is back, make him work for a spot in the rotation. Also, if they can pull down 2 big free agents - make Kennedy and Hughes both fight for a spot - neither of them earned it this year.

In any event, something needs to change......

IMHO - 9.27.08

Here we go again - the Mets' chances of making the playoffs come down to the last day of the season. I would imagine that Mets fans have a higher level of stress than most - and may even have a shorter life expectancy because of it.

Johan Santana is worth every cent spent on him. I have said this all along. He proved it again today by tossing a three-hit shutout, on three days rest, in a game where he was needed the most. 16-7, 2.53 ERA - only a few wins away from a Cy Young. The bullpen is to blame for this. For everyone that said his stuff isn't as good as it used to be - this is his lowest ERA over a full season. He also gave up 10 less home runs this year than last year.

I would like to change my pick for NL MVP. As much as it hurts, Ryan Howard is the correct choice. His level of production has been incredible, and the timing is even better (unless your a Mets fan).

Please come back Mark McGwire.

Where in the world is Barry Bonds? Is he still working out hoping some one signs him? I haven't seen anything.

The Rays did it. The are the Anti-Mets. The won the AL East when no one thought it was possible. Thank you Rays for knocking the Yanks out of the playoffs. I am glad to see them go, just like the Braves a few years ago.

Is Larry (Chipper) Jones going to name his next child Citi?

We could see a Cubs-Rays World Series... That would be different. I am not sure the Tropicana Dome is ready for the World Series. I love the stadium - parking might be a problem!

If K-Rod wins the Cy Young because he leads the league in saves, then Ichiro should win the MVP for leading the league in At-Bats.

Jason Giambi is a dork.

Farewell Yankees.......

Last night, the Yankees were officially eliminated from the playoffs for the year. Like most big fans, I was holding on til the end - grasping at the fragments of hope that they would win their final six and the BoSox would lose theirs. As usual, the sox can do nothing right and with their win last night, we will soon bid farewell to the Yankees for the year. On the bright side, with Knight Rider being re-made and the Rays making it, I'll have something midly entertaining to watch come October.

Being a very attractive guy in my mid-20's, the Yankees making the playoff's have been a part of my lifestyle for longer than I can remember. They've been playing in October longer than:
1. I've been using or owned a computer.
2. iPods have been around
3. Midde School students thought it was cool to say "Phat" (that didn't last long)
4. Roger Clemens used steriods
5. Most people have had cell phones
6. Those stupid "can you hear me now" commercials
7. People began blogging so people could read their thoughts (please keep reading mine)
8. The AL East leading Rays have existed

I'm a college grad, young professional and they haven't missed the playoffs since I was in elementary school. Gosh......

You can blame it on injuries (which is the predominant cause) or you can try to find some other reason to place blame, but the bottom line is that the bombers just didn't deserve the post season this year. A combination of under performing superstars, mediocre performances from younger players, and over valuing their prospects combined to make a recipe for disaster.

Let's hope for the 09 season that Cashman decides to stick around, someone buys Hank a muzzle, and these overpaid players realize they are supposed to hit the ball on occasion. For this year, I'll get out my rays t-shirt, dust off my knight rider lunch box, and hope for a productive winter for the former New York Highlanders (and original Baltimore Orioles.)

Omar Gets Four More

Link: ESPN - Sources: Mets GM gets vote of confidence, 4-year extension - MLB.

Looks like Omar is coming back for four more years, and the reviews are mixed. Lots of people think this is a bad move, but is it? The Mets had a historic collapse last year, a terrrible start this year, and seem to be fading again now. There are lots of reasons to think he hasn't done a good job, but I disagree - I think he has done well. Here is why:

1. This is only the fourth time in the Mets' history that they have had at least 3 consecutive winning seasons - pretty unbelievable. The others were the early 70's (where they were winning seasons by very little), the second half of the 80's, late 90's/early 2000's (no division titles, but a couple of wild cards), and now. Each of the other three periods led to a World Series appearance. I am sure with the talent they have now, the streak of winning seasons will continue.

2. No one thought the Mets had a shot in Johan Santana trade - I don't care how you look at it, Santana has been excellent, and with a little more relief help, would be the Cy Young winner. This trade was a small miracle. There were other good trades too, the Milledge trade, the Delgado trade, etc...

3. In 2003, the Mets had 66 wins, and finished 34.5 games out. In 2004, 71 wind and 25 games out. In his second year, 2006, they won 97 and won the division. Not bad...

4. Attendance is way up - 3.8 million in 2007. It was 2.3 million in 2004.

If you look at the progress made, he has done his job - even if things don't work out this year (which they will). Please tell me, how many other GM's have made this much of an improvement in the last couple of years - there may be a couple, but not many. Who else are the Mets going to get?

I hate to say I told you so...

Link: Mets To Unload Castillo?: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com.

It looks as though the Mets will be looking to dump Luis Castillo during the off-season. I am not sure how to react to this. When they gave him this huge contract, I didn't see anyone in the media, on blogs, or message boards that actually thought this was a good idea.

Money aside, who locks in a 32-year old second baseman with bad knees for four years?? I have said previously that I could care less what players are making, as long as they are helping their team win. Luis Castillo was an awful move by Omar Minaya - a great trade last season, but an awful signing afterwards. It is time to move on, and the Mets obviously agree, but could they not see this coming?

We have learned this year that the Mets have some pretty good bats in the farm system. It's time to let them play. It looks like the Mets plan to move Daniel Murphy to second base, and I am excited to see this, more than I would be about any free agent second baseman.

The one good thing to come out of this situation is that maybe, just maybe, Omar has learned his lesson.

Change a Brewin' in Milwaukee

With a little less than two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Milwaukee Brewers decided to make a change at the top of their coaching tree, deciding to give well-respected manager Ned Yost his walking papers. Most would call this as a surprising move, myself included, and others have gone so far as to describe it shocking or perplexing. But I submit that this really isn’t all that crazy, and in fact, my most lasting emotion is disappointment that they decided not to go with the great Bob Uecker as his replacement. They will rue the day, indeed.

Consider first the most obvious statistic connected to this decision: the Brewers have dropped seven of their last ten, including four in a row, and have seen their wild card lead vanish in that time, as they are currently tied with the Phillies, and have virtually no shot at taking the division title. Look, the Brewers are going to win the wild card – that’s been all but etched in stone since the CC trade, so does it really matter who leads them there? John Kruk made a good point on Sportscenter tonight when he said that he personally didn’t care who his manager was – just go out and play the game.

Yes, the organization just exercised Yost’s 2009 option less than a year ago, but the biggest thing to understand in this case is that for this team, there is no 2009. As Tim Brown of yahoo sports did a great job of outlining in his column today, it’s literally now or never for this mid-market team who hasn’t even made the playoffs, let alone be in this position to contend for a world championship, since 1982. Sheets and CC are both gone as of November, and who knows if they’ll have their everyday lineup this healthy and productive next season. Case in point: the 2008 Indians. Everyone just assumed that they’d be healthy and crushing the ball on their way to another playoff appearance. Not so much. It’s funny how one team’s demise can indirectly lead to another’s ascent sometimes.

Bear in mind that Doug Melvin and co. are the same brash front office that sold the farm to make the CC deal in the first place, so why wouldn’t they continue with their aggressive  mentality in September, when they see it all slipping away at the hands of a manager whose message had suddenly begun to wear thin?

This move may reek of desperation, but in the end the front office must do what is right for the players and fans in Milwaukee who will not get this close to the World Series anytime in the foreseeable future: Go All In.

K-Rod breaks the record!!

Link: ESPN - Mariners vs. Angels - Recap - September 13, 2008.

K-Rod is now the all-time single-season saves record holder. Now, can me move on?

I mean, really, I am not sure how this changes anything. He has a few blown saves too, and none of his saves required any more than three outs. The vast majority of his save opportunities started with no runners on base.

Congratulations, Angels, for winning so many games that K-Rod had a ton of opportunities. Your reward: K-Rod leaving via free agency to go rip some one off. Please don't sign him, I am sure you could find some else to give 60+ save opportunities to, and maybe you will have another record-breaker.

He did it in dramatic fashion too - the Angels needed to bring in their closer for a nail-biter - up by three, and no one on base, against the beyond-disappointing Seattle Mariners.

Maybe now everyone will stop talking about this...

IMHO - 9.13.08

The Mets started the day at the dreaded 145 game mark - at that point last year, they were up by 7 games with only 17 games left to play. It seemed almost impossible for them to not make the playoffs, but, they ended up one game behind the Phills - Mets fans will never be the same, myself included. We will never be comfortable with a lead again.

This year, however, I think will be different. The resurgence of Carlos Delgado, the emergence of Pelfrey, and the presence of Santana change the dynamic of the N.L. East race, and the Mets are a much tougher team to beat. Jon Niese looked good tonight, too.

I keep reading about teams' payrolls and who they can afford to sign this off-season. It is a little interesting, but I just don't care how much is spent on players. There is this backwards notion that ownership and management really care about winning and fans really care about the bottom line. As a fan, I only care about seeing my team win. I don't care how much they spend to do it. I will never say, "oh, I don't mind that they finished last because they have a $30M payroll, at least they turned a profit." For the owners, this is a business, and if they go bankrupt, winning the wild card doesn't make it any better. For them, it is all about the bottom line.

That being said, if another person tells me how great the Marlins did this year considering their payroll, I may throw up. The Marlins are full of good players who are under team control. Give me a break, every infielder has at least 25 home runs, that's ridiculous. They are loaded with great talent, and still no one goes to the games! If you are a Marlins fan and you are upset that some of your players might not be back next year, then go to some games. You can't pay salaries if you aren't making money on ticket sales. It is all about the bottom line. The Marlins management has down a good job securing great talent on a pathetic budget. Imagine if they were selling out some games...

The AL East race is a little too close for comfort. The Rays let the Sox sneak back in, but I still think Tampa Bay will hold on. It is a great story, but not as great as the story about the other New York team that is sitting in fourth place. That's right, I said it, the other New York team, the Yankees. Hank is nuts, I think he will sink one of the greatest ships in baseball, if not sports, history.

Delgado Might Get Paid

Hey sports fans.........I've always wanted to say that, but I'm way too much of a nerd in real life to pull it off. Tonight I'm going to jump out of my comfort zone and talk about the Mets. Here we go:

First check out this article.

That's right folks, Carlos Delgado is a real candidate for MVP. Yep - that Carlos Delgado. The same one that had rumors throughout the first 2 months of the season that he may be released. Yes - the guy that was so bad that the Mets almost paid him to not play now has 35 homers and over 100 RBI with a couple of more weeks left in the season. At this point, it almost seems certain that the the Amazin' Mets will pick up his option - but if things swing his way, it may not be an option at all.

Apparently Delgado can make some extra cash and vest his option by earning 25 more award points. If he can achieve those 25 more points, his option will automatically become vested and it will be bumped up to $16 million. Think it's unlikely? So do I, but let's not rule it out as a possibility. In order to make this happen, he'll have to finish somewhere in the top 6 in the MVP voting AND be the World Series MVP.

So, let's deal with the World Series MVP part. If they actually do make it that far, Delgado has a pretty good shot at being the series MVP as he's been a major contributor for them in a lot of spots as of late. A few good swings at a few opportune times and he's there. Also, if they make it to the World Series, Delgado will be one of the big reasons they are there. He's been there a number of times when they've needed a big bat there.

According to the article linked above, 2 people in the past few years have been mouth the World Series MVP and in the top 6 of the league MVP voting (Mike Lowell and Manny Ramirez, and man do I hate the BoSox.) Also, Delgado has been in the top 6 of MVP voting three times before, twice with Toronto (2000, 2003) and once with Florida (2005.)

No matter what happens, the Mets will bring back Delgado for next year - they'd be fools if they didn't. At either 12 or 16 million, anything resembling the season he has put together after the first 2 months would be well worth it.