Dropped Third Strike

IMHO - 8.30.08

We're down to the final month - and some interesting story lines are developing...

K-Rod is going to destroy the record for saves in a season, probably earning over sixty by the end of the season. He has been getting some talk in Cy Young discussions, but does he deserve it? I don't think so - the save is a highly-overrated statistic. It means very little. For example, tonight for the Mets, Ayala gave up two runs in the ninth, but because he came in with a three-run lead, he gets a save. Awful performance, but gets a save... Here some reasons he shouldn't even get one vote:

- Of the 19 closers with at least 25 saves this year, 8 have a better ERA than K-Rod. His ERA is good, but not incredible for a closer.

- He has pitched in 62 games, but has only pitched about 56 innings.

- Yes, he has 51 saves, but has had 56 opportunities. This has nothing to do with his skills.

- There are other closers with a better percentage of saves per opportunities - he just plays for a team that wins more.

Jack feels strongly about this, I think he is going to go into more detail this weekend...

Staying on the "saves" topic - The Mets/Phillies game on Wednesday was the perfect example of how overrated the closer role has become. Carlos Delgado came up to bat with two outs in the eighth, he was having a good night, and was facing a pitcher who (in a small sample of at-bats) he has had some good success against. Brad Lidge was available, but it wasn't the ninth. Charlie Manuel decided to save Lidge for the ninth. The result - a very predictable hit from Delgado, specifically a game-tying home run. He then brings Lidge in for the ninth in a tie game, and Lidge gets lit up. At what point do managers stop managing for stats, and start managing for wins. That decision probably caused that loss, and is the reason the Phillies are in second place.

Another example, the Mets are 16-7 (I think) since Billy Wagner went on the DL. Not bad...

The Yankees are out. Will everyone please stop talking about the Yankees. They irrelevant.

How cool would a Twins/Rays world series be?

The Mets need to pick up Carlos Delgado's option.

The Rays continue to roll, even with poor attendance. It's about a two-hour drive to the stadium for me, but I go when I can. It is exciting, how are they not selling out every game. The stadium is very comfortable, and is air-conditioned!!

Marlins tickets should be free. They will again trade or not sign some of their best players, so they don't need the money for payroll.

I used to love Baseball Tonight, and I still like it, except when Eric Young and Eduardo Perez are on it. I'd rather mute my TV and just watch the highlights. Seriously, please let me know if there is anyone anywhere that likes it when they are on. The whole "Souvenir City" thing is old, very very old.

I do, however, enjoy watching Mets games with Gary, Keith, and Ron. They provide so much insight, and I feel like I understand what is going on much better when I watch them. Just one request for Keith Hernandez, in case he ever reads this (which I doubt he will): Please never talk about Men's underwear on TV again. I am not going to say much more, but you spent to much time talking about Jason Giambi's undergarments a few weeks ago. I couldn't stomach it, and I am still disturbed by it. I have forgiven you for this though.

That's all.

Rosenthal on Yankees.....Duh?

In this piece on FoxSports, Ken Rosenthal hits us with the information that the Yankees could very well be in trouble again next year. Anyone really surprised?

Every team has to go through a rebuilding process, but the Yankees have the unfortunate problem of never really being allowed to do that. With the overly demanding fans and the fierce media presence in New York, the Bombers never have a year when they aren't expected to win.

Rosenthal says in the article that acquiring CC Sabathia would give the Yanks one of the top rotations in the game. I have to agree. Can you imagine this rotation? Sabathia, Wang, Chamberlain, Moose, and Pettitte? Obviously Mikey is a question mark as noone knows if he'll be able to repeat this year and its also questionable whether or not the Yanks will be able to bring him and Pettitte back. I don't think they should have a problem, losing both of them would not be good. That rotation would cause the Hughes and the over valued Kennedy to fight for their spot in the rotation or start in the bullpen or AAA where they can develop a little more. BTW, can someone trade Kennedy before everyone realizes how little value he has?

In the same article, some of the mistakes that Cashman made in the past year are listed. Complain as you will, Cashman is still one of the best GM's in baseball (save maybe Epstein in Boston and Friedman in Tampa.) He's made unpopular decisions to develop young talent when the fans would most likely prefer big name free agents. The Yankees should keep him, if not - he won't have a shortage of offers.

The last thing I want to look at is the discussion of Jeter and his future in pinstripes in the article. First off, Jeter is signed through 2010 and I think the Yankees should and most likely will re-sign him after that. He's the face of the franchise and the captain; it'd be wrong to see him in another uniform. The question is whether or not his offensive decline this year is a 1 year thing or a sign of things to come. Also, will they be able to justify using him at shortstop if his defense gets worse than it currently is. Rosenthal suggests a possible move to center as first base wouldn't work out as his bat doesn't make sense there. I think center would be a good move if they didn't have so many prospects in the system with Melky, Gardner, and Jackson waiting to play. They can trade Melky, and they probably should to get something solid in return. Either way, it'll be interesting to see how the Jeter thing turns out.

So, the bottom line, the Yankees are totally out of it yet this year (except for the fact that they pretty much are.) With the right amount of exceptional playing and luck, we may see them come October. Next year..........let's hope for some major free agents and a few miracles.

Thoughts From The Week (and maybe more....)

The close of another week brings us a little closer to the end of the season and also a little closer to a post season that could possibly not have the Yankees or Red Sox. Here are a few of the recent happenings and some of my thoughts:

Pavano wasn't bad: Wow, Carl Pavano actually made a start for the Yankees and didn't stink up the place. He went 5 innings, gave up 7 hits with 1 walk, gave up 3 runs and struck out 5. Pavano is paid roughly $40 million (actually 39.95) over 4 years and this was his 20th start during that contract. If this is the only start he makes this year, thats just about 2 million a start. I'm fine with this - but shouldn't he go more than 5 innings for that kinda money? Who knows, maybe he'll do well the rest of the year and I'll forgive him for 1 of his many injuries.

K-Rod is being discussed for the Cy Young: First, let me say that I'll have a pretty in-depth posting about this later this week. Man - this is crazy. Not only is he over rated, but I don't think any reliever should be in the running for the best pitcher in their respective league. Yes, he has 50 saves. Yes, he has a pretty good ERA. His numbers aren't as great as they used to be if you look at them in-depth (again, I'll do this later) and there are much better choices in the American League.

Old people like to pitch: Both Glavine and Smoltz have decided that they would like to pitch again next year. Jamie Moyer says he might be able to pitch until he's 50. Randy Johnson is most likely going to pitch again next year. Moose is pitching extremely well this year (although he's not as old as others here.) There's a reason why so many pitchers are in their 20's and so few are in their 40's. The human body is not made to pitch over hand for this long - it's just not a natural motion for the shoulder. Look for all of these guys to be unreliable and plagued by injury next year. Let's bring back Wells and Clemens (barring a prison sentence) as well. Tom Seaver is still alive, I bet the Yankees would sign him.

The Astros want to get Ben Sheets. If they do get him, watch out. A rotation including both Ben Sheets and Roy Oswalt would be scary good. Heck, they'd have a great shot at winning 2 games out of every 5 almost every time through the rotation.

The Mets signed Al Reyes. I know Billy Wagner is bad, but is Al Reyes really any better? I guess now that the Rays are actually good, people will jump to sign their leftovers. Isn't this the same guy that missed time earlier this year for getting beat up in a bar fight?

The Dodgers grabbed Greg Maddux. Way to go on starting to give Joe Torre some of the right tools with this trade and Manny's; Andruw Jones and Brad Penny are just not cutting it. One note - maybe you could get people that aren't old enough to be my Dad?

El Duque may retire. Seriously? It's about time. A player being forced out of playing baseball by a bunion on his foot is a little funny. It's almost as funny as when Pedro fell in the bathroom and had to miss playing time.....

Ok.....that's enough thoughts for now, my head is starting to hurt. Leave me your thoughts in the comments.

Olympic Baseball - the best of the rest...

One more day of the Olympics for this year - I haven't watched any of the baseball games, and haven't wanted to. I know their are a hundred reasons not to have MLB players participate, but their is one big reason to let them - publicity.

The National Basketball Association is spreading into markets all over the world like wildfire. The annual NBA draft includes players from many different countries. Yao Ming is a hero in China, and many of the different national teams playing in the Olympics have NBA stars. The field has become much more competitive since the dream team of 1992.

What if MLB players participated in the Olympics? Many of the teams would be loaded with talent. Could you imagine seeing a ball game with the best baseball players in the world competing for what most athletes consider the greatest athletic achievement - an Olympic gold medal. No money, no agents, no individual awards, just playing for pride and your country.

Major League Baseball would be exposed to new markets where it could thrive. Even better, more kids would play world-wide, leading to a deeper talent pool and maybe even other leagues across the world. Just look at the progress basketball has made.

I know their are so many reasons not to include MLB players - stopping the season, overextending pitchers, etc... This is a pointless discussion anyway, as baseball will not be included anyway. I won't miss Olympic baseball, it isn't too much different than watching a minor league game. It's just a shame MLB can't find a way to take advantage of an incredible publicity opportunity.

How the Mighty Have Fallen

As I travel to Georgia’s capital city this weekend, I can’t help but wonder how such a once-proud club crumbled so quickly. I never thought I’d say this, but I almost feel sorry for the Atlanta Braves organization, its players, and its fans.

I doubt that many people around baseball, or baseball fans in general, shared that sentiment though when the Braves were ripping off fourteen straight division titles. I know I didn’t feel that way back then. But usually when an empire crumbles, when the mighty fall, we prefer it to be when the big guy is at its strongest. Otherwise, is the victory not at least slightly tainted? Don’t get me wrong, I seriously doubt that the Mets or Phillies, the main beneficiaries of Atlanta’s recent struggles, are occupying themselves by inscribing asterisks next to their respective 2006 and 2007 Division Champions banners. All I’m saying is that the fans of those two franchises should count their lucky stars that the Braves’ luck finally ran out.

One criticism of the Braves organization that I never fully understood, sometimes coming even from their own fan base is that they “only” won one World Series during the aforementioned fourteen-year run. Fourteen straight division titles, three World Series appearances, and one World Series title (1995), is an accomplishment that simply does not get the recognition it deserves. Much like the Buffalo Bills of the early ‘90’s, there’s something to be said for sustained excellence at any level, even if that doesn’t necessarily translate into world championships. You think Pirate, Brewer, Oriole, or Red Fan wouldn’t trade places with Braves Fan post 1991? They would, and they wouldn’t think twice about it either. More credit needs to go to Bobby Cox as well for consistently being able to mend together a clubhouse that is often a challenging mix of rookies and veterans.

Unfortunately for the Braves, the injuries, age, and in some cases ineffectiveness, have just become too much for the club to overcome in recent years, particularly in regards to the pitching staff. John Smoltz, who has been nothing short of a rock for the team during his career, be it in the starting rotation or out of the bullpen, has been down for the majority of this season after shoulder surgery, and as a result, his career may be in jeopardy. Their 2008 team leader in Wins and ERA, Tim Hudson, is also out for the year after recently undergoing Tommy John surgery. Recently re-acquired fossil Tom Glavine apparently lost his access to the fountain of youth, and finally landed on the D.L. this season, and more than once for good measure. Critical bullpen pieces Peter Moylan and Rafael Soriano have both missed significant time (the former has been out since early April), as has arguably the team’s best all-around hitter and leader Chipper Jones. Should I even mention Mike Hampton? I know that he’s finally back, but Barry Zito thinks he’s overpaid, and Carl Pavano thinks he’s a health risk. Brian McCann was out for roughly a week after being trucked by Shane Victorino in a home-plate collision in July. Their raw, but very talented right-fielder, Jeff Franceour, has spent time in AA Mississippi, albeit a short stint. All of this led to their clean-up hitter, their trade-deadline splash of ’07, Mark Teixeira, being jettisoned to SoCal. One after another, pieces of the Braves’ ship have fallen off, and it appears as though they’re sinking to lows not seen in Atlanta since the ‘80’s.

Kotchman, Jurrjens, and McCann (the best overall catcher in baseball not named Mauer or Martin) are great pieces to build around, assuming health and contractual stability, but one has to wonder how long it will take to right this thing, and if Bobby Cox will be the man to do it. Could they have made more of a run this year had they stayed healthy? Absolutely, but that’s not the Phillies’ or Mets’ fault, so you can’t blame them for kicking the Braves while they’re down. After all, Atlanta was the schoolyard bully for almost a decade and a half, and as they say, what goes around, comes around.

Sorry about your luck Atlanta Fan, but hey, at least it’s almost Falcons’ season!

This Weeks Band-Aid? Pavano?

As the Yankees approach the weekend, there is a pretty big question mark as to who will take the hill on Saturday to lead them towards the playoffs or early vacation for the first time in more than a dozen years. After last year, it was hard to imagine their rotation being a bigger mess, but lets take a look at some of the starters they've used this year.

Moose: Wow - so he didn't suck this year. After worries of being stuck in the bullpen, this guy figured out that he has to pitch like an old guy and it works. With 16 wins now, could be be looking at his first 20 win season.

Pettitte: Solid - pretty much what we expected. Also - can't beat the veteran presence.

Rasner: I'm confused - first you were ok, now you suck. Can we agree that he shouldn't be starting? (at least not yet)

Kennedy: If you had more than zero wins, it might make up for your sucky ERA that's over 8. You should throw batting practice - then at least it's okay to give up all of those hits.

Joba: Maybe if he stayed in the bullpen, he wouldn't be hurt, but who knows? Solid starter and should have more wins than he does (score some runs for him guys.)

Hughes: Yeah - not such a great year - perhaps worse than Kennedy, but I'm convinced you don't suck. Either pitch better or get traded before you lose all of your value.

Igawa: How many millions did you make for that one awful start? Man, what a mistake.

Sidney "I'm a Loser" Ponson: Not awful thus far, but pretty soon you'll remember that you suck. Please go away now.

Wang: We miss you. Please come back......and no more base running.

Oh yeah - Bruney started a game and Giese got a couple as well.

Now let's take a look at a couple of options for this Saturday's start.

Zambrano: Not the good one.......Victor. Can't we not start him and just trade him for Scott Kazmir already? (go Mets!)

Hughes: I hope he gets it - really, he's the only chance we have.

Pavano: Could it be time for his annual appearance or will a bad haircut land him on the DL? Also, big surprise.....word has it he skipped a bullpen session yesterday with a stiff neck. Do you even want to pitch?

I'm sure Igawa and Kennedy are being considered as well, but who cares about them?

If the Yankees are really desperate, I'll pitch for like 1/10 of what Pavano would make that night. I mean, I've got to be their 2nd best option, right? Yankees fans, brace yourselves - it's going be a rough ride through the next few weeks.

IMHO - 8.19.08

We are half way through August, and things are getting interesting in some divisions, and pretty boring in others.

- The Angels, Rays, and Cubs should be a lock for the post-season. The Rays and Cubs don't have huge leads, but I don't see anyone catching them. All of the other races should make for some exciting September baseball!

- The A.L. Wild Card winner looks like it could be the Sox, I don't mean the Red ones. A Boston and Yankee-free post season will be nice. With the Yankees' season ending at the end of September, Sidney Ponson will have a full winter to hibernate!

- If the Mets can figure out their bullpen mess, the will easily win the East. The only reason it is close is because of all the blown saves. The Mets having good starting pitching. Johan has been excellent (more on him in a second), Ollie has been much more consistent, and Mike Pelfrey has continued to improve throughout the season. John Maine is back, and Pedro has been effective. The bullpen, however, is still a mess.

- I still think the Dodgers will win the West - I have said that all year.

- Johan Santana has been excellent - and has been clutch. Like I said last week, the Mets' bullpen has blown six of his wins - with those he would 17-7 (pretty good for August). His ERA is 2.75, only 0.15 higher than the league leader. The bullpen has cost him a shot at the Cy Young.

- I enjoyed Lee's article about the Twins - maybe someone should forward it to Hank and George Steinbrenner, and teach them to win and save a few bucks. Maybe they need a good mascot. How about someone like Mr. Moneybags - he looks like Mr. Met, but he carries around bags of money and throws excess cash at over-aged, over-rated baseball players.

- Riveraveblues.com speculates about the future of Derek Jeter. I couldn't imagine him somewhere else, I am sure the the Yanks will throw huge amounts of money at him, too. I mean, he is worth more than Jorge Posada, who they over-paid for. Maybe Ford will kick in some, I heard he drives a Ford Edge... Yeah, he's got an edge. (I am so sick of those commercials).

Marlins Doing It Again?

I was living in south Florida when the Marlins came into existence. I remember going to the mall, meeting a few players and the manager (Rene Lacheman if I remember correctly,) and getting some autographs. It was a new team, I was a young kid, and they gave me something for free - I was immediately a fan.

Like most expansion teams, they were pretty bad the first few years and didn't have anywhere near a decent season until 1996 when they won 80 games. The very next year they won (perhaps bought) the World Series. This was amazing - they were now the youngest team to ever accompish this (which would later be taken away by Arizona) and people in South Florida went to games besides those against the Mets.

Then they sold the team. Completely dismantled it. Huge Firesale.

It was tough to remain a fan of a team that would do that. The next year they won a very impressive 54 games. Thats right folks - World Series one year, lost more than 100 games the next while finishing dead last in their division.

Over the next few years they fought back, started having some home-grown talent, and started the century with a string of 3 respectable (although not winning) seasons. 2003 came along, and they did what nobody really thought they could - they beat the Yankees in the World Series.

Then they sold the team. Again.

Now, this is where they lost me. The years following this sale were not nearly as bad, but I couldn't stand to root for a team that would sell off any talent when they got it.

Now we're in 2008, and apparently the sights of a decent season are making them nostalgic for those successful firesales they've had in the past. I couldn't care less about the Marlins with the way they've burned their fans (or should I say fan?) in the past, but this is just ridiculous. Every time a Marlins fan gets a glimmer of hope, the ownership sells it off to the highest bidder.

Go Marlins! 

Circle Me, Bert!

It seems to me that if there’s one team in Major League Baseball that has never gotten the credit for its success this decade that it deserves, it’s the Minnesota Twins.  From the front office, to manager Ron Gardenhire, to the underappreciated roster, to the stadium groundskeeper who does a terrific job keeping that grass nice and tight (I mean, it hardly seems to grow at all - it’s unbelievable!), right on down to their outstanding mascot, the Twins are consistently a first class organization, in spite of their relatively limited resources. So how can a team with such a small payroll (24^th in MLB in 2008. Take a look at the teams below them on that list – not exactly a “Who’s Who” of contending teams this decade, with the possible exception of Oakland) seemingly be in the playoff chase every year this decade? Well, I’m glad you asked…

1)      Trades:

-          One trade that comes to mind immediately is the highway robbery that was the fleecing of the Giants to get Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, and Joe Nathan for A.J. Pierzynski. To get a front of the rotation starter (pending the health of his elbow, of course), and a rock-solid closer, as well as a decent middle-reliever, for a demonstrative catcher who didn’t last in San Francisco anyway, required huge foresight on the part of Minnesota’s front office.

-          I’m still in favor of dumping Johan Santana for some talented prospects before he inevitably left Minnesota for free agency, which obviously would have gotten them nothing in return. Carlos Gomez, the jewel of that Mets’ prospect crop, will be a very productive five-tool major-leaguer, and sooner rather than later, even though he obviously hasn’t lived up to expectations this season, which is only his first full season in the Majors.

-          While I still think that the Rays got the better of the off-season Garza/Bartlett for Young/Harris deal because you never, ever, give up on a young pitcher as talented as Garza, Delmon Young has done a great job over the last month or so of turning on that power bat that made him the #1 overall pick in the 2003 draft, and has shown why the Twins had the confidence to let him take over the fifth spot in the batting order everyday, a spot previously held by the very productive Michael Cuddyer before his injury. Over the past thirty days, Young is hitting .315, with four HR’s (he has a total of seven on the season), and 16 RBI.

2)      Drafting:

-          The first thing that jumped out at me when reviewing the Twins’ recent draft history was that four of the five members (Liriano’s acquisition was discussed earlier) of the team’s current starting rotation were early round draft picks brought up within the team’s system. When you stop and think about how many teams make terrible mistakes on players, particularly pitchers, that they take in the first two rounds (I’m looking at you, Pittsburgh), this really is a feat to be applauded. Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker and Glen Perkins have done an outstanding job filling in for the departed Santana, Carlos Silva and Matt Garza (which is why it’s almost ok that they let the latter go in that trade), as well as the demoted Boof Bonser, combining for 34 wins among them this season. If you had heard of any of those guys, with the possible exception of Scott Baker, before this season, then you either regularly watch FSN North broadcasts, or your name is Tim Kurkjian.

-          The Twins took Joe Mauer, a native of the great state of Minnesota, with the #1 overall pick in 2001. Taking a catcher with his leadership skills, defensive acumen, and ability to contend for a batting title year in and year out seems like a no-brainer in hindsight, but remember, some saw their decision to pass on Mark Prior, who went #2 overall to the Cubs, as just another example of a small-market team being stingy. He who laughs last…

-          Other notable Twins draft picks that have at one point or another made a significant impact for the club on the field include Justin Morneau (3^rd round, 1999), Torii Hunter (1^st round, 1993), Jason Kubel (12^th round, 2000), Michael Cuddyer (1^st round, 1997), Pat Neshek (6^th round, 2002) and Denard Span (1^st round, 2002 – how much will this guy be to watch in Minnesota for years to come?). This is definitely an organization with an eye for talent.

3) Leadership:

-          Aside from Mike Scioscia, and maybe Terry Francona, is there anyone else that you would rather have as the manager of your ball club than Ron Gardenhire? He knows when to back off, when to be fiery and aggressive (his blow-ups on umpires, and subsequent ejections, are that of legend), he manages his pitching staff well, and he holds his team accountable for the little things that can make a big difference, such as base running. Surely this team would not have had nearly the amount of success that it has in the past six years without his being at the helm of the Twins’ ship.

-          It bears repeating: what this front office has done building from within with such limited resources is nothing short of remarkable. The Twins are on pace for their seventh winning season since 2001, and have a legitimate shot at winning the A.L. Central, again, despite losing their best pitcher (Santana), and arguably their best position player (Hunter), this off-season. Nobody picked them to even sniff the playoffs, let alone win the division, in their preseason picks, but a smart front office that knows when to give players an opportunity (see: Denard Span), and which players to simply get rid of (see: Livan Hernandez), has once again proven the doubters wrong.

-          Joe Mauer needs to be mentioned more often along with Jason Varitek as catchers who lead on the field by calling a great game for their often fluctuating pitching staff, and who step up as a leader in the clubhouse as well.

Yes, the Twins have done it the right way since 2000. They play fundamentally-sound baseball with homegrown talent, and succeed in doing so, and times should be exciting for years to come in Minnesota with a new ballpark on the way. There hasn’t been a team this decade that has done more with less, and here’s hoping that their small-market success continues well into the next decade.

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