Dropped Third Strike

Trade Deadline Winners and Losers

With the trade deadline behind us, it is time to take a look at our not-so-expert opinions of the days winners and losers.

Winners
Mike - Dodgers - This doesn't make the Dodgers the best team in baseball by any means, it doesn't even put them in the top five in the National League. What it does is put the Dodgers in position to take the West. That kind of move in such a weak division is huge. They are 13th in the NL in runs scored, and 15th in home runs. They are, however, first in ERA... They are only one game out... Watch out Arizona. Besides, what better place to send an over-paid, self-centered crybaby who can hit then to Joe Torre, who dealt with those kinds of players for years.

Lee - Angels - After a subpar showing in last year's ALDS, they finally got the power bat that they've been searching for to bolster their chances of defeating the Beasts of the East come October in Mark Teixeira. Although Teixeira and the man he's replacing, Casey Kotchman, have the same number of World Series rings (for those of you keeping score at home, that would be zero), you have to think that getting a guy with a higher slugging pct., as well as HR and RBI totals and runs scored, and for a worse team, mind you, is a significant upgrade. Angels management seems to be all in for 2008, and the folks in SoCal should applaud them for it.

Jack - Yankees - The Yankees are the clear winner at this year's trade deadline. Coming down the stretch, they had obvious needs at Catcher, Left Field, and in the bullpen. They turned out one of the best deals when they took a solid left fielder in Xavier Nady and a proven late innings pitcher in Damaso Marte from the Pirates for nearly nothing with 4 minor league prospects. They then picked up a solid veteran catcher with Pudge Rodriguez from Detriot for the useless, inconsistent pile of nothing named Kyle Farnsworth. They come into August looking much more solid and ready to take that second AL East playoff spot from the BoSox.

Losers

Mike - Mariners - Has anyone told them they are awful?? They asked too much for players that are either too old or just don't pitch that well. They could have come away with some pretty good young talent. It is time to take this team in a different direction. It's too bad the Mariners are so bad, I've seen Frasier, and the people of Seattle seem too nice to deserve this. In a very close second is the always pathetic Atlanta Braves. I am glad Mark Teixeira is worth all the talent they sent to Texas last year, he sure did help them. They re-gifted him to the Angels.

Lee - Red Sox - Me calling the Red Sox a bunch of losers? Sounds like any other Thursday, I'll admit, but today I actually have a reason. But to trade a future Hall of Famer because of what seems to be little more than a personal beef seems like a rather short-sighted and immature decision by Theo Epstein and Co., who are normally amongst the brightest at their jobs in the league. Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I really think that if Boston management would have just held out past the deadline today, Manny would have flown straight for the remainder of the season, realizing that he was playing for his job in 2009. Instead, a career .312 hitter with 512 HRs and over 1,600 RBI, a man who is notorious for destroying the hated Yankees, both in the box score and in their melons, a man who is widely considered the greatest right-handed hitter since DiMaggio, has just been shipped 3,000 miles away for Jason Bay. The same Jason Bay who, when placed in the only remotely meaningful and pressure-packed situation of his major league career, the 2005 Home Run Derby, metaphorically crapped his pants on national television (probably the only time he's played on national television, of course). Perhaps I'm exaggerating a bit with my last point, but really, in my opinion the Red Sox are taking a huge risk by trading away one of most clutch right-handed RBI producers in recent memory for a guy who has proved absolutely nothing in a town where even the people who live there don't watch the team. And why? Because Manny hurt your feelings by saying some mean things to ESPNDeportes? Grow up. You may have set yourselves up nicely for the future, but rebuilding sounds like something more suited for a team in Pittsburgh than Boston, and that's not something I think the Chowda' Heads in New England will take lightly.

Jack - Pirates - It was a tough decision between the Bucs and the Rays, but how can I fault a first place team for sticking with what has been working? The Pirates sold off 3 of their biggest pieces and didn't get much in return. Xavier Nady is gone to the Yankees along with teammate Damaso Marte. In return for losing a solid outfielder and a proven set-up man, they received four minor leaguers; it seems everyone around agrees that this was a steal for the Yankees. Jason Bay is off to fill the whole left by the most self-centered man in baseball, Manny Ramirez. They do pick up Andy LaRoache to keep third base warm until Pedro Alvarez is ready to take over, but Brandon Moss taking over in left field is no replacement for Jason Bay.

Email Q&A

This weekend we will be having our first email Q&A post. We'll pick 8 or 10 of the best questions to answer, and we are going to pick one question as the "Email Question of the Week." The person who sends that question will win an awesome Dropped Third Strike fan pack - although on our current budget, it isn't all that awesome...

Send your questions to dtsblog@gmail.com. If your question is not used, please be patient, we expect hundreds of emails!

dtsblog@gmail.com

Griffey to ChiSox.........really?

As we've all heard by now, Ken Griffey Jr. is heading over to the White Sox where he may actually have a shot to play past September. This looks to be mostly a salary dump for the Reds and a questionable decision by the White Sox. Griffy waived his 10-and-5 no trade rights to make this happen. There is a $16 million club option on Griffey for next year with a $4 million buyout. Man, I used to love playing Ken Griffy Jr. Slugfest.......

So far this year, Griffey has banged out 15 homers. He's also driven in 53, scored 51, and put up a career-worst .245 batting average. Obviously Griffey still has some pop in his bat and adds the veteran presence that is expected to come along with a 13 time all star. He was also the AL MVP in 1997, picked up a few Silver Slugger awards, and won every Gold Glove between 1990 and 1999.

My only question is where are they going to play him? With the corner outfield spots already filled with Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin, the obvious spots would be DH, Center, and first. First base is pretty much off the table as Griffey has only played a game or two there in his entire career (and man is it a long one, this is his 20th season.) DH is already filled on a regular basis by another player, Jim Thome, who is almost old enough to be my Dad. Thome is also outperforming (although very slightly) Griffey in most offensive stats.

Center seems to be the most logical place to stick Griffey, but this presents a couple of issues. Putting him in center means having to give Nick Swisher some time to play at first; this reduces the playing time that both Konerko and Thome will see. The other problem is how Griffey will cover all of center field with that weight of his walker slowing him down.

Bottom line, unless the reds sent a time machine back to the 90's with him, picking up Griffey seems like a questionable decision at best. 

Manny Could Have Been a Met????

So I was just watching ESPN News to see their analysis of the trade market, and Steve Phillips was talking about how the waiver wire works and how crazy things can be at the last second. He went on to say that a few years ago, when he was the GM with the Mets, he got a phone call from the Indians' GM about 30 minutes before the deadline, offering some mega-deal.

He wanted to trade Manny Ramirez and one of the Alomars to the Mets for Edgardo Alfonzo, Jay Payton, and someone else. Hmmm... His reason for not pulling the trigger was that his "head was spinning" and he was didn't know if he could get in touch with everyone. I guess this is why Steve Phillips works at ESPN, where he can't hurt anyone anymore...

He then went on to proclaim the Mets the losers of the day.......

He would know...

He knows the Mets, and he knows losers...

M.L. Predictions and More - Lee's Picks...

Does anything make you say, “Who gives a crap?” more than predictions for the final third of the season, made exclusively by amateurs?  Well hey, as long as you’re here…

N.L. East – Philadelphia Phillies

I considered Florida, or maybe even New York, for this pick, but with the Manny to Miami deal all but dead and the Mets being, well, the Mets, I have to believe that the defending champs have what it takes to repeat. They are by far the most complete team in this division, and before you jump on their Achilles heel (starting pitching, which has been awful at times this year), realize that their total team ERA is an even 4.00, good for 4^th in the National League, and best among their N.L. East counterparts. This is mostly due to the outstanding contributions from bullpen stalwarts Chad Durbin (1.68 ERA) and J.C. Romero, as well as their all-star closer Brad Lidge, who surely has surpassed even the loftiest of expectations by being a perfect 26 of 26 in save opportunities so far this season (Billy Wagner and Kevin Gregg have each blown six saves this season by comparison – far from reliable). You can’t ignore the disturbing reality that 40% of their opening day rotation has spent at least some time pitching for AAA Lehigh Valley (that’s right, not injured, not given a day off, not even demoted to the bullpen – demoted to the minors!), but I wouldn’t trade their everyday core of Rollins, Victorino, Utley, and Howard for any other group of everyday players on a single team in the league, let alone the division. Furthermore, I’m not buying that Fernando Tatis and Carlos Delgado will keep this level of production going for much longer, and a Mets implosion in September is pretty much inevitable. If, and yes, this is a really big if, Brett Myers has indeed regained his velocity and confidence pitching for the aforementioned IronPigs as he claims, and can perform as well as he did Tuesday night down the stretch, then I have confidence that the Phillies' bats will more than make up the difference in that Cracker Jack box they call a ballpark in Philly. Cheesesteaks for everyone!

N.L. Central – Pittsburgh Pirates (kidding…I’m taking the Cubs)

Forget about St. Louis, ok? As much credit as Tony LaRussa deserves for keeping the Cardinals in it this long, it’s clearly a two-team race, and after taking the first three of the current four game series in Milwaukee, the Cubs have emerged as the only logical choice. Sure, Milwaukee made a courageous move by trading one of their top prospects in Matt LaPorta for CC Sabathia (note: no periods in CC anymore. Really, you can’t make this stuff up), giving them a formidable one-two starting pitching combo with CC/Sheets, but Zambrano/Harden sure isn’t bad either, and I prefer the rest of their rotation (Dempster, Lilly and Marquis) to that of the Brewers (Parra, Bush, Suppan). Another important point about Sabathia is the massive workload that he’s undertaken just since moving to America’s Dairyland. He’s thrown an average of over 111 pitches in his five starts for the Brewers, and I can’t see him stepping up and asking for less anytime soon. Seriously, people who abuse rental cars think that Ned Yost is going to take advantage of this limited time opportunity to send CC to the hill once every five days. And while Milwaukee trots out Eric “I actually bring a gas can to the mound” Gagne and SalomonTorres in late game situations, Lou Piniella can confidently call on the far more reliable crew of Marmol, Howry, Wood, and impressive newcomer Jeff Samardzija.

Advantage: Cubs.

N.L. West – Arizona Diamondbacks

Sure, the Dodgers have a great chance at this. Their pitching has been stellar, with starters like Chad Billingsley and Derek Lowe contributing to what is, as of today, the staff with the lowest ERA in the N.L., but I don’t like their everyday lineup nearly as much as I do the team in the desert. And while I don’t think that the Diamondbacks are as good as they played in April, I also don’t think that they’re as bad as how they played in May and June. They’ve already started to show signs of coming out of it, winning seven of their last ten games. Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy have been keys to their offensive resurgence since the All-Star break, and look for Justin Upton to regain his early season form when he returns from an oblique injury. I realize that winning the N.L. West this year is kind of like being the world’s tallest midget, but Arizona really could be a downright scary team to face in the division series with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren pitching in the first two games. Look out.

N.L. Wildcard – Milwaukee Brewers

I think the Brew Crew will do just enough with their pitching to squeak past the Marlins and hold on for a wild card berth. Braun/Fielder/Hart is a ridiculously scary core as well, and somewhat underrated, by my estimation.

A.L. East – Boston Red Sox

Is there a more complete team, when healthy, in all of Major League Baseball than Boston? They can play small ball with Ellsbury and Pedroia, play long ball very, very well with Ortiz, Youkilis, Lowell and Manny (yes, he’ll still be there and yes, he will continue to produce as you would expect the greatest right-handed RBI machine of our generation to produce), they have very good starting pitching in Beckett, Matsuzaka and, to a lesser extent, Lester and Wakefield, and while their bullpen has had its issues, I’ll still take my chances down the stretch with the big game experience of Okajima, Timlin, and of course, Papelbon. I do see this race being very closely contested until the final week of the season between Boston and New York, but in the end I do not expect Hughes, Pavano, or Wang to make enough of an impact down the stretch to win the East. Right about now is when you might be saying, “but what about the Rays?” First of all, stop talking to your computer screen. It’s an inanimate object, get a hold of yourself. Secondly, I just don’t think that Tampa Bay has enough to hold on past both of the big boys in late September. Sometimes in sports you have to lose a close race or series before getting over the hump in the next season or two (the Bulls vs. the Pistons in the late ‘80’s/early ‘90’s comes to mind). They’ll hang around, at least into mid-September of this season, and could very well pass the Yankees as early as next season, but we’ve already seen that if they’re not pitching, they’re not winning. They can’t match the power games of Boston or New York, and their bullpen has been shaky at times. I love the direction that this team is going in, but a worst to first finish is just too much to expect this year.

A.L. Central – Chicago White Sox

This was a very difficult race to call, but in the end I love what the White Sox can bring to table with their pitching, and I love what they can bring with the power bats in their lineup even more. They’re second only to the Texas Rangers in slugging percentage in the American League and have an impressive run differential of +80 to this point. Give credit to G.M. Kenny Williams for making moves to acquire arguably their two most important contributors to this point in Gavin Floyd and Carlos Quentin (you think Arizona would like to take THAT one back?) in recent off-seasons, and for at least taking a chance on Griffey for a relatively low price. Danks, Buehrle, Vasquez, the aforementioned Floyd in the rotation, along with Jenks anchoring the ‘pen, should be enough to get the Palehosers a division title.

A.L. West – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County near Disneyland

Duh.

A.L. Wildcard – Minnesota Twins

Mauer and Morneau make a powerful middle of the lineup combination, and Ron Gardenhire is an outstanding manager. I’ve been drinking the Francisco Liriano Kool-Aid since he debuted in ’06, and I’m not about to stop now. Look for his call-up, if and when that ever happens, to be a shot in the arm to their rotation, similar to that of a trade deadline acquisition.

*Bonus Pick* - American Association Playoffs

North – Lincoln over Sioux Falls (sorry, Canaries fans)

South – Fort Worth over El Paso

Finals – Fort Worth over Lincoln

Adam Dunn vs. Ryan Howard

As the trade deadline quickly approaches, we are finally starting to see some interest in Adam Dunn, and why not? The guy is putting up great power numbers and would add power to any lineup in baseball. In my last post, I half-heartedly compared him to Ryan Howard. I have gotten a comment and a couple of phone calls from people who disagree, so lets take a look:

Here are their comparisons this year:
Average - Dunn .243, Howard .237
Home Runs - Dunn 32, Howard 30
RBI - Howard 94, Dunn 74
Runs - Howard 67, Dunn 58
Slugging % - Dunn .567, Howard .499
OBP - Dunn .385, Howard .323
Walks - Dunn 76, Howard 50

Neither hits lefties very well (Dunn .212, Howard .188)

AB per HR - Dunn 10.35, Howard - 13.63
OPS - Dunn .952, Howard .822

Dunn is leading in most categories, except Runs and RBI, which can be affected by the rest of the lineup, and Ryan Howard is surrounded by a much better team.

Adam Dunn is 2 inches taller, and 10 pounds heavier. Dunn is even 10 days older than Howard.

Why not compare them??? Dunn would be very productive in a better lineup - and it looks like there is a chance he will find one, possibly with the Tampa Bay Rays. In my opinion, the biggest downside with Dunn is the team he is playing for.

Mets need to step up to the plate...

With the trade deadline looming, are the Mets going to do anything to improve their team? It looks like the Marlins may be adding a big bat (and bad attitude) in the outfield, and the Phillies have already added some (weak) pitching. I can't seem to figure out what is going on, maybe Omar Minaya is really good at keeping secrets.

The biggest need is in the outfield. The Mets started the year with three good bats. Moises Alou is out, and Ryan Church remains a question mark. Even if he does come back soon, can he keep up the pace he had before he got hurt? Here are some options:

Raul Ibanez, Mariners - He seems to be a having a pretty good year, but is old, although not nearly as old as Moises. Although, it looks like the Mets are willing to pay the price for him.

Jason Bay, Pirates - Also pricey, but it looks like he may factor into the Manny deal.

Adam Dunn, Reds - hmmm, a big dude who strikes out a lot... sounds like Ryan Howard. Adam Dunn has 30hr/72rbi. 72 RBI on that team??? Imagine what he would do with the Mets. He is relatively young, and would make the lineup much more intimidating. I like this one. According to Jon Heyman, the Diamondbacks and one other National League team may be involved. Maybe this mystery team is the Mets??

Of course, if nothing worked out, it looks like we could have a Tatis/Chavez platoon. Although, I hope it would be more Tatis. He has been very productive so far, and sees to get a lot of clutch hits. This would be ok if Ryan Church were back soon.

Finally - how about Barry Bonds? The Mets wouldn't have to give any prospects up for him, just a few bucks. Although, they would have to get a large hat specially-made for his large head (I wonder if he can still fit into his old Pirates hats?).

I will keep my fingers crossed.

Hey - I wonder if the Red Sox will have to throw in some diapers as a part of a Manny deal?

Pudge to Yankees

According to ESPN's Buster Olney here, the Yankees have acquired cather Ivan Rodriguez from the Tigers in exchange for reliever Kyle Farnsworth, who spent time with the Tigers in 2005. This looks like the Tigers are throwing in the towel for the season so we already have my first pick being shot down for the AL. Rodriguez is batting a pretty respectable .295 this year with 32 RBI and 5 homers in 82 games for Detroit. In 45 games for the Yanks this year, Farnsworth has compiled a 3.45 ERA while striking out 8.73/9 innings and walking 3.45/9 innings.

This seems like a pretty great deal for the Yankees to me. They get an above average catcher with a wealth of experience to allow Jose Molina to return to the backup role where his batting average says he belongs. Detroit receives an inconsistent setup man who has done pretty well as of late having only allowed two runs during July which both came in a blowout against the Orioles. This move allows the Yankees to give other pitchers a shot in the 8th inning including the newly acquired Damaso Marte or perhaps Edwar Ramirez who has been pitching pretty well as of late. This also gives the Tigers a late inning option to go along with Todd Jones, Fernando Rodney, and the injured Joel Zumaya.

Stay classy......Jack

American League Predictions by Jack

Since we've already got the NL picks up, I figured I'd toss in my picks for the AL.....here we go:

AL East - Tampa Bay Rays

As a Yankees fan, it more than a little bit kills me to say anyone but them will win the division, but it's time for me to accept the reality and hope for the wild card. With the great, young pitching rotation the Rays have put together combined with their great defense (seriously, does Aki ever not turn a double play), I think it will be hard for anyone to knock the rays out of first place. The only fall back will be that they seem to have trouble winning away from the Trop. Even if they don't take the division, at least they're a lock to set their franchise record for wins in a season. Their biggest problem along the way will be the Red Sox. With their run differential being more than double that of the Rays (+89 to +40) they could pose a pretty big problem. Either way, it's great to finally have more people cheering for the Rays at the Trop when the Sox come to town.

AL Central - Detroit Tigers

I'm going with a pretty big long shot here, but I think the Tigers will start producing like they should have been all season. Besides, I just picked up Pudge Rodriguez on my fantasy team, so I'm expecting him to hit another 50 or 60 home runs this year.

AL West - Los Angeles Angels

Really, no surprise here. Despite having who I consider to be the most overrated closer in the game (I'll be posting about that later), the Angels have the best record in the majors and are a virtual lock to make the playoffs (barring a downfall like the 2007 Mets.) With the addition of Mark Teixeira to their already solid lineup, they should do fairly well in October.

Wild Card - New York Yankees

While we can almost all agree that the wild card will come from the AL East, it's pretty tough to pick which teams will be around after September. Realistically, the Sox will be taking either the division or the wild card with the Rays picking up the other spot, but I can't bring myself to say this will be the first season since the Pre-Torre era that the playoffs will start without the Yankee pinstripes. With the impending returns of Phil Hughes and, dare I say it, perhaps Carl Pavano, the Yankees should have some late season pitching help right when they need it - for crying out loud, how long can we put up with Sidney Ponson? Also, the addition of Xavier Nady to help take the place Matsui and Posada should give them a pretty solid nudge in the right direction.

AL Champs - Los Angeles Angels
we can all still hope for the Rays or Yankees though

Also, just a quick word on the NL Central. Is there any way the Cubbies won't win it? I'm going to lean on the acquisition of Rich Harden and their major league best run differential of +118 (compared to Milwaukee's +22) to say that they not only take the division but also fair very well in the playoffs.

Just my thoughts - send me yours in the comments.....

National League Predictions - Mike's picks...

With a little more than two months remaining in the season, here are my picks for the National League:

N.L. East - New York Mets

Obviously the Mets are the strongest team in this division. For those of you who don't see them as the obvious choice, here are my reasons: First of all, they have the strongest pitching rotation in the East. Johan Santana has been very good this year, but has lacked run support. Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey have been really strong in July, and they are still getting better and more consistent. The offense has started to heat up too. It is true they were underachievers for most of the 1st half, but the production has been great as of late. Carlos Delgado will be the difference maker. Look for the Mets to put some distance between them and the rest of the division in August. Their biggest weakness is the bullpen, they are too inconsistent. I think Jerry Manuel should let his starters go a little deeper into games to take some pressure off of the bullpen.

Longshots - Marlins and Phillies - The Marlins can't pitch and I hate the Phillies.

By the way - the Atlanta Braves are pathetic. They were waiting to decide whether they were buyers or sellers. You've got to be kidding me, did anyone besides them and their fans think they were still in this?

N.L. Central - Milwaukee Brewers

C.C. Sabathia is a great rental. It would be sad if they didn't win with him, because this is their only chance. The Cubs have a good team, but will blow it because they are the Cubs.

N.L. West - Los Angeles Dodgers

Isn't it a shame that every division has to be represented?? Almost every team in the A.L. East would be in first place in the N.L. West. I guess someone in the West has to win it, and at least Joe Torre knows how to win (at least in the regular season).

Wild Card - Chicago Cubs

Well, we can forget about anyone in the West. The Marlins don't have the pitching, and I hate the Phillies.

National League Champs - New York Mets

Well there are my picks - no bias at all.

What do you think? Leave me a comment.